Analytical News: Commercial Aviation Market in North America
The international commercial aviation market is one of the fastest-growing markets that possess many opportunities for development. This is largely due to the fact that the demand for air transportation is growing, the infrastructure necessary for aviation is improving as well as the international and national legislation. As confirmation, we cite many different indicators, including passenger turnover, cargo transportation, the export of aircraft industry products, financial indicators of the industry, etc.
It is worth to admit that the commercial aviation market in North America surpasses expectations and continues to flourish, further coping with the challenges from bankruptcy and consolidation. Let’s see the key indicators that confirm this fact.
Over the past ten years, the air traffic has grown on average by 1.5 times. Thus, the number of passengers carried increased from 2.5 billion to 4.1 billion, i.e., by 35.5%. Volume in turn freight traffic increased from 41.4 million tons to 56.1 million tons, i.e., by 65.4%. At the same time, an increase in air transportation volumes was accompanied by an increase in the number of aircraft operating in the world. Since 2003, the global fleet of commercial air transport increased from 18,972 aircraft to 27,957 aircraft in 2017.
Operators have maintained focus on capacity discipline as annual load factors improved systemwide in the region with international load factors reaching the highest levels in five years. Airlines in North America have accounted for more than half of global industry profitability in the last six years. They have maintained exceptional profitability despite the expense of a rapidly increasing workforce and rising fuel prices that fluctuated higher in recent years but still far below the peak periods.
Given trade performance, it becomes clear that key markets in terms of aviation products are the markets of North America and Europe. Therefore, it is not surprising that these two
regions lead in the structure of the global commercial aircraft fleet.
If we take into consideration the fleet composition of the commercial aviation market in North America, we will see the share of growth in the passenger fleet from single-aisle airplanes, despite capacity growth through up-gauging and cabin densification in the category. And this share of growth is equal to 95%.
Currently, there are about 24.4 thousand civilian aircraft in the world. At the same time, growth is forecasted to reach 48.54 thousand aircraft by 2037, i.e. almost double can
increase the global commercial fleet. In general, today the Asia-Pacific region is the world leader in the number of aircraft, which accounts for 7360 aircraft. North America is slightly behind - 7210 aircraft.
According to Mordor Intelligence , North America is poised to maintain strong traffic growth over the next 20 years, particularly in the domestic market. Network operators continue to focus and invest in hub strength in the form of increased capacity and airport improvements. Single-aisle airplanes will comprise a much larger share of the future fleet as the segment will account for two-thirds of all deliveries. The widebody forecast includes the operational flexibility of small and medium-sized airplanes as well as large widebodies for high demand markets.
Thus, the analysis showed that the global aviation market is developing, which positively affects its performance. Among the main ones, you can highlight the increase in flights from 32 million in 2013 to 38.1 million in 2018. Besides, aviation exports of products significantly increased by 79.8% over the past ten years.
Global Civil Aviation Market Volume
American aircraft concern Boeing unveiled a new forecast, which says that world airlines will need 44.04 thousand new aircraft with a total value of $ 6.8 trillion in the next 20 years.
According to a Boeing press release, almost $ 9. trillion will be required for services by a global fleet of civilian aircraft, which provides for a combined assessment of the civil aviation segment in the amount of app. $17 trillion by the end of 2038.
The civil aviation industry is extremely resilient. The sustainable market performance will ensure that the fleet of civilian aircraft doubles in the next two decades, as well as creating a large-scale ecosystem of solutions for servicing and the operation of this park.
According to the company’s forecast, 44% of new aircraft will be purchased to replace older aircraft, the rest will be to meet the growing demand for air travel. Together, the new aircraft will meet the needs of the industry with an average growth rate of passenger and freight traffic of 4.6% and 4.2%, respectively.
Given the new aircraft and those that remain in operation, the global fleet of civilian aircraft will number more than 50 thousand units by the end of 2038. It has to be noted that the number of aircraft which crossed the mark of 50 thousand has never happened before.
The largest segment of the market remains narrow-body aircraft ⏤ it is expected that new deliveries of this type of aircraft will be equal approximately to 33 thousand units in the next 20 years. The growth of this segment, whose demand is estimated at $ 3.78 trillion, is due to the development of low-cost transportation, steady demand for aircraft replacement and the development of the Asia-Pacific region.
In the wide-body segment in the next 20 years, 8.34 thousand new passenger aircraft with a total value of over $ 2.65 trillion will be required. The demand for wide-body aircraft is partly due to a significant number of age-specific aircraft that will need to be replaced in a few years.
It is expected that the supply of new aircraft in the Asia-Pacific region will amount to 17.39 thousand, to North America ⏤ 9.13 thousand, to Europe ⏤ 8.99 thousand. By the way, all of these expectations may be accompanied by top-10 aircraft innovations that will enter our everyday lives.
Thanks to the development of the civilian aircraft fleet, airlines will require a greater influx of flight and technical personnel. In this regard, the civil aviation industry will need almost 3 million new specialists by the end of 2038.